Gut Instinct Isn’t Enough: Here's How To Build Better Decision-Making Habits

The practical tools you need to make smarter calls under pressure

If you’re building a startup, you already know: hard decisions come at you every single day. Picking a co-founder, figuring out pricing, choosing how to launch; these decisions pile up, and often, it feels like there’s never a clear-cut answer. What’s less obvious is how most of us actually make those calls, and why gut feelings and past experience, while useful, aren’t always enough.

A recent study by the Global Association of Applied Behavioural Scientists, involving over 100 experienced professionals, uncovered some surprising truths that should resonate with any startup founder. Even after years of formal education, including grad school, 85% said school never really taught them how to make smart, practical decisions, at least not the kind we face as founders, where everything is messier and moves faster.

Think of Stewart Butterfield at Slack: he and his team were building a game, saw it wasn’t working, and, based on what they’d seen, heard, and felt, dumped years of work to chase what would become Slack. No class could have shown them the way; real learning happened in the moment.

Experience is great, but it’s not magic. Eighty percent of those surveyed trust their own experience most, but experience can be a double-edged sword. Living through something once doesn’t guarantee you’ll get it right next time, especially when the situation is new or complicated, which, let’s face it, is pretty much every day in startup life.

Sometimes, we lean too hard on old playbooks that don’t fit the current moment. Adam Neumann at WeWork had a wealth of startup experience, but unchecked confidence, fueled by previous successes, led him down a path that nearly brought down his entire company. On the flip side, founders like Brian Chesky at Airbnb went out of their way to get advice, pressure-test decisions, and learn from others’ mistakes. That’s what helped them grow stronger with each new challenge.

Here’s another blind spot:

Almost everyone turns to people they know; friends, family, trusted team members, when the stakes are high. Very few actually look to outside experts or evidence-based tools.

For founders, this is risky. The people who care most about you might echo your own hopes and fears, or simply not know enough to spot a big pitfall. Some of the best pivots and product ideas, like Instagram ditching their original app plan because early feedback (from outsiders) said photo-sharing was what mattered, came from founders who stepped outside their bubble and truly listened to evidence over instinct.

Here’s the kicker: most people, startup founders included, think they’re pretty great at making decisions, yet nearly half admit they don’t really have solid habits or a routine for making tough calls.

It’s easy to get caught up in the rush and assume your experience or confidence will guide you through. But in startups, that’s a gamble you can’t afford. Every major move, hiring, fundraising, or going after a new market, deserves a more deliberate decision-making process. It doesn’t mean ignoring your gut, but it does mean slowing down enough to ask: “What am I missing? Who am I not listening to? Is my confidence earned, or am I just hoping for the best?”

Startup founders who want to get better at making tough decisions shouldn’t just rely on motivation or sheer force of will; building strong habits and using simple, proven frameworks can make all the difference when uncertainty ramps up.

Testing your assumptions is a critical skill because every founder has blind spots. One effective habit is to write down your key assumptions; don’t just keep them in your head. Whether it’s about market demand, user behavior, or how much runway you actually have, putting your assumptions on paper makes them real, visible, and challengeable.

From there, force yourself to ask: “What would have to be true for this to work?” Create scenarios where you flip your assumptions. For example, “What if our target user doesn’t care about our killer feature?” or “What happens if our cost of acquisition doubles?” Then, go out and look for evidence to actually invalidate your claims. Talk to users, test your product with outsiders, review analytics for unexpected gaps, and invite negative feedback.

Brian Chesky at Airbnb was famous for going over his own worst-case scenarios and figuring out what could go wrong before making each major move; those habits didn’t erase risk, but they made each step more thoughtful and actionable.

Here are some other ideas to consider to improve your decision-making:

When it comes to frameworks, you don’t need heavy management theory; you need something quick, actionable, and repeatable.

One of the best is the “Pre-Mortem” framework, championed by psychologists like Gary Klein. The idea: before you make a big decision, imagine you’re six months down the road and things have gone terribly wrong. Then, work backwards and ask, “What happened?”

This exercise helps you and your team spot hidden risks, unspoken doubts, and forgotten variables before committing your resources. Founders often find that a quick pre-mortem reveals make-or-break details, like market misjudgments or technical debt, that never surfaced in upbeat team discussions.

Another practical tool is the “Decision Matrix.” Start by listing your key options and decision criteria (cost, speed, risk, strategic fit, etc.). Score each option against your criteria, and let the numbers highlight strengths and weaknesses. The process isn’t about turning decisions into pure math; it’s about making trade-offs explicit and getting your team on the same page. This transparency reduces noisy debates and spotlights where gut feelings might be steering you off course.

Finally, commit to a “Test-and-Learn” rhythm. Instead of treating every decision as a final bet, break moves into smaller experiments. Launch that feature to 100 users before rolling out to 10,000. Lock in a pilot partnership instead of a big multi-year contract.

Make it normal to review results, adjust, and repeat. The world’s best founders, from Stewart Butterfield at Slack to Reid Hoffman at LinkedIn, live by this approach. It reduces regret, sharpens learning, and keeps you agile no matter how much experience you have.

It doesn’t take hours of extra work to add some structure to your decision-making process, just a little intention and a willingness to challenge your own instincts.

These habits and frameworks won’t make startup decisions easy, but they’ll make you better at facing the unknown and bouncing back when surprises hit.

If there’s one message for founders, it’s this: making better decisions is a skill, not an accident. Build habits around testing your assumptions and seeking out diverse inputs, not just from your inner circle. Make it normal to ask tough questions and consider using formal frameworks, not just stories from last time.

In the long run, it’s not just boldness that sets successful founders apart; it’s the discipline to get better at making choices, every day, even when the stakes are high and the answers are unclear. That’s an edge worth developing.